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[研究报告] 3份全球新兴市场投资策略的深度研究报告2011

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[LV.7]常住居民III

发表于 2013-9-28 08:01:28 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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1、全球新兴市场投资策略的深度研究报告2011-德意志银行6 f9 j% X3 ~4 u; z
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下载地址8 {+ Y5 ^9 X5 E/ |; Z. U9 T+ o
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https://cloud.189.cn/t/A7JJfqrIry2y/ ~& Q  k1 Y# e" N" ]

9 y* L+ U+ h3 z( t! B7 R. A; fTable of Contents
% m6 O9 r6 B+ ^( p: L6 l8 h8 d10 Key Themes fromthis report ...............................................................................................3* i) m: v, Y$ G1 y- Z+ Q3 n
Main Report Section ......................................................................... 6- j: Y$ m& o6 h* o1 S0 H# v
1. A decade of outperformance has led to complacency towards Emerging markets .............64 q* f5 ~. O5 _) @! P' K, t' f+ x
2. Valuations against developed equities no longer appear cheap..........................................128 ?, f; t  b( o* l" _* Z. X$ ^) z6 x
3. Emerging debt no longer stands out as obviously cheap ...................................................247 w2 d* e8 z3 q" p
4. Emerging economies are unlikely to growas rapidly withoutfurther reforms....................29, m( g: o$ u1 W2 a3 U! t& [& U
5. Commodity prices are unlikely to repeat their post 2000 performances ............................34
" r6 o7 W% S$ [5 r5 w. ]9 O# z6. Equities may not capture superior growth and demographics of EM economies ..............37
7 B  L0 {+ w) @9 R- \7. Corporate governance has improved but minority shareholders still lack influence. ..........43
! P& j; N3 b6 f7 |. L* G. u( U7 Y1 y8. GEM Business models will haveto adapt to slower growth ..............................................47
. U' A* X; _, x3 W* J9. Bigger state role may reduce stock returns ........................................................................51+ [" H# Y# }1 Y" @
10. In a unipolar world, geopolitical developments will matter more......................................569 ^) m9 p: U( j% R2 g9 ~
Appendix A....................................................................................... 59
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[LV.7]常住居民III

 楼主| 发表于 2013-9-28 08:11:05 | 显示全部楼层
2.全球新兴市场投资策略的深度研究报告2011-美林,pdf136页
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下载链接:
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https://cloud.189.cn/t/jQjQN3RRRbAn
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Contents  page
( z0 S: p. e0 \9 c8 yOur Favourite Trades for 2011  3
2 {6 w% [3 S2 H9 c! D- G; }Top 10 Trading Themes for 2011  47 w  Y9 J2 ~) F
1. What are the risks to EM assets in 2011?  81 @% V& l, k* a/ z
2. How should one think about EM asset allocation now?  146 w3 H+ G* k; h- f* Q
3. Are we there yet – how to recognise a bubble?  20/ U% _" F2 @+ C+ F1 F
4. How and where to play inflation in EM?  237 L- n" Z* t% u0 u
5. Are there any spots of value left in the EM local rates trade?  29
6 y* l! R/ ^7 z4 d6. Conditions favourable for modest EM FX appreciation  342 W4 `: B  Z) o
7. Internationalisation of the Renminbi- a slow burner  40
% @! ~0 R+ v' O  z; g$ ~, D, J8. How much can EM credit spreads tighten from here?  41( D2 P6 \) q& E! y
9. Capital Controls: Widespread but mild  50
& d  ~4 W+ Q+ X10. What are the EM political hotspots to keep an eye on?  56
' `) f; g! @& P  oUS Rates Overview  59
: w# V6 h& E% V) X3 q! u$ c, C' cGlobal Credit Overview  672 ^$ b5 l* G0 n( O1 y8 \
Regional EM Outlooks & Trades  73
0 A" a5 x' p( ?$ \4 H—  Philippines: Consider Long PHP vs. G2...............................................................77
3 y" K8 ?- _: F) E9 ^4 H2 Y0 q—  India: We continue to like the INR ........................................................................79
' K) D9 [' _3 A2 f. P- y—  Singapore: SGD a relatively safe call?.................................................................80
6 z0 d7 {3 d* t# M. o—  India: Near-term opportunity to add to OIS steepeners........................................813 D% K  V& D6 n8 y  h
—  Thailand: Receive steep front end IRS, consider steepeners ..............................82- m$ f0 O/ o. c; c
—  China: Risk of bear-steepening ............................................................................83
$ n* v" S/ y/ ]" l—  Korea: Still some value in short end IRS..............................................................84& h9 c3 U6 m& y9 s$ U) ]* ~
—  EEMEA Outlook: healthier and stronger, but still very heterogeneous ................92. E/ ]: _9 U( O$ W+ `) P$ e
—  Russia/South Africa: Long RUBZAR ....................................................................96
, N) Z) C! l0 }0 n—  Turkey: 2s10s steepener; sell EURTRY for now..................................................98) g/ X7 h3 Z6 R: S+ i+ t
—  ............................................................................................................................100
8 o6 P2 }" H4 E* f2 x; e7 x—  Israel: long 10-yr bond; sell GBPILS ..................................................................101+ v+ u* f9 w& f4 Q9 \, V9 ]
—  Poland: Short EURPLN; FRA steepeners ..........................................................103
. T0 w7 k8 I- w  |( v—  Russia CDS spreads to compress against Spain and France ...........................104) f$ d5 V2 W" x; ?6 M7 ?; H
—  UAE – buy Dubai 2015s .....................................................................................105
3 Y1 o) u9 B1 q4 g& Q1 Y—  Latin America Outlook: Anchored fundamentals, more challenging valuations .106
. ?  E7 S+ u: r  P$ J9 R: b, Q—  Mexico: Hold TIIE flatteners, but not as a structural trade .................................112- X& P$ @7 M3 N, H
—  Brazil: Jan’14 Pre-DI rates offer tactical value ...................................................113/ [, x! Y; u% j& w
—  Chile: Long CLP and 1-yr inflation break-evens.................................................115& [% O- O9 m  {; H5 K
—  Peru: Long PEN to play growth and inflation pressures.....................................1164 {* E* z' p- Y. F4 I) V
—  El Salvador: Overweight USD-denominated bonds ...........................................118% l$ q, `. M/ c8 a8 {- K" k
—  High yielders: Structurally long Argentina, tactically long Venezuela.................119# P' u8 T; z0 ~5 {- _1 E
EM FX/FI Trade Monitors  122
. M: }5 e/ D( \* Y& o# ?—  EM FX Trade Monitor 2010 ................................................................................123* @, V* c3 ^+ O% i; S1 B5 \. Q5 ~
—  EM Fixed Income Trade Monitor ........................................................................126
5 ^$ k; G, Z7 G* e2 uMacro Economic Forecasts  128
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[LV.7]常住居民III

 楼主| 发表于 2013-9-28 08:15:37 | 显示全部楼层
全球新兴市场投资策略的深度研究报告2011-摩根大通,pdf48页
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( J  n  B  ^& B7 y7 w: Y0 q) S; lhttps://cloud.189.cn/t/vyAVFf2YnaUr0 V! b6 i0 B- u
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We are less bullish on the outlook for Asia / EM equities 0 E5 A* U( e+ ?! x! H+ @
than consensus, and than we were in our last two . g4 v9 r3 y1 O. q4 D; P8 m
year-ahead outlooks. The macro environment ahead is   X! N/ ?- z# B9 l1 Z
likely one of slowing GDP growth, rising input cost
9 L1 p/ @6 B( b( [! q1 |" {inflation, tighter monetary policy and more modest
8 n; o$ K3 Z$ y5 Oexchange rate appreciation. These forces combine in
9 @1 e/ J* q6 p& |our factor modelling to generate a below-consensus * O6 |# i9 ^* k$ K: }
Base Case for 2011 US$ EPS growth for both MSCI EM
9 G6 ^4 t0 q# |8 h. d3 O, W1 Tand MXAPJ of 13% (US$94 and US$35, respectively). 4 N+ H/ j% _( n, t
Unlike last year, we consider the tail risk of our Bear + H, @- Z# ^/ t7 J) K
Scenario, envisaging low single-digit EPS growth, more - ?# x9 K: C8 E) N) \
likely than our Bull Scenario.
. n3 [5 c" g5 L! KWe set scenario-weighted Target Prices of 1,290 for
& M0 \- t6 m! |3 vMSCI EM and 540 for MSCI APxJ for year-end 2011.
, ]' x9 y- U* d, H+ s) ?0 ~6 D% SThese represent upside of 19% and 20% from current $ D2 |. T8 V+ A. @+ }8 V
levels, respectively (and 7.5% and 11%, respectively
' Y; R0 u1 }" V5 Q! [higher than our previous end-2010 Target Prices).
2 S5 w' A% E( {8 UWe continue to favour EM equities to outperform EM
7 x' Q; R4 o% R( [2 BUS$/Euro and local currency sovereign debt. On our " }9 k% y- I$ b; V1 s' ?5 s& v
projections, MSCI EM is trading at a 7% forward P/E
6 i. h' t' N# l' H+ v2 e! ^, R' C" Idiscount to MSCI World, whilst prospective ROE is
1 d, m2 M0 f' O- x& j; X/ mforecast at a 15% premium. We therefore forecast EM
+ f5 G  K4 W1 I; P2 U7 S. cequities to continue to outperform DM, but with a smaller
+ V) O5 I* G% O+ w- imargin of outperformance (250-500bp) than in either of 4 m" ~" ]8 y/ S* {( |- N: Z$ \- p
the last two years, and back-end loaded to 2H11.
5 X4 ?) j) ^0 [We reduce Consumer Discretionary from OW to EW but $ N& h9 r( l5 B5 [+ ^1 O6 z4 o
retain an OW on Energy. We also highlight important - O) h+ @, J7 k
divergences in likely demand growth from China and
9 }, X+ W! d8 B0 t+ X- r2 Z$ ]India within Energy and Materials. At the stock level, we 9 T. k- J! _7 E1 _  M9 f
favour lower beta, with increased focus on dividend yield ) V: w- Q8 v& {7 l1 z
and growth. We go into the year with low country risk
1 n: o. q$ v$ U* U6 c& qpositions, albeit with a preference for China, Korea, and
& Y0 @5 k* f- JRussia amongst the larger markets. We remove China + M: m5 D' u, f8 F1 j+ K" t
Dongxiang Group (3818.HK) from our APxJ and GEM
+ g. ], D: }! a" Y; Ofocus lists, adding Taiwan Glass Corp. (1802.TW).
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[LV.2]偶尔看看I

发表于 2014-2-18 10:19:54 | 显示全部楼层
楼主说的不错···顶起··
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[LV.2]偶尔看看I

发表于 2014-2-18 10:49:11 | 显示全部楼层
支持楼主。。。。
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[LV.3]偶尔看看II

发表于 2014-2-18 14:31:14 | 显示全部楼层
好吧,我学习了
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[LV.2]偶尔看看I

发表于 2014-2-20 13:26:59 | 显示全部楼层
楼主···加油吧···我们是你的粉丝···
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发表于 2015-5-25 07:48:32 | 显示全部楼层
真的牛,双手赞成,谢谢了
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