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[研究报告] 3份全球新兴市场投资策略的深度研究报告2011

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[LV.7]常住居民III

发表于 2013-9-28 08:01:28 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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1、全球新兴市场投资策略的深度研究报告2011-德意志银行
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下载地址
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1 D- }3 Y- `( U5 D- Uhttps://cloud.189.cn/t/A7JJfqrIry2y
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! Q9 g& \) v0 o) L5 ETable of Contents
- }9 T" l- e5 K) J10 Key Themes fromthis report ...............................................................................................3. x2 r  X" L5 f$ l% D0 ^
Main Report Section ......................................................................... 6$ A2 [8 L) J0 ~( r
1. A decade of outperformance has led to complacency towards Emerging markets .............6
4 }; K- o7 V' U$ }2. Valuations against developed equities no longer appear cheap..........................................12
* ~; I( K2 K  J3. Emerging debt no longer stands out as obviously cheap ...................................................24
2 M2 k) a, c% a' B1 e. k. N4. Emerging economies are unlikely to growas rapidly withoutfurther reforms....................29
3 ^1 k. G3 A, S# T) S, |5. Commodity prices are unlikely to repeat their post 2000 performances ............................34
2 p' ^* {# R, Y2 A, G1 ^1 x+ G6. Equities may not capture superior growth and demographics of EM economies ..............37
2 ^8 z6 Q& N' {+ g) w1 i0 R/ F7. Corporate governance has improved but minority shareholders still lack influence. ..........43
  U6 g( S2 t- ]) l1 ^- G- ?' B  V! G8. GEM Business models will haveto adapt to slower growth ..............................................47) U7 O5 Z* K( v1 e  O
9. Bigger state role may reduce stock returns ........................................................................51
0 ~* O! B) P! C6 b* }1 \% T7 n& V10. In a unipolar world, geopolitical developments will matter more......................................56
; {) S8 r* X; f0 H9 P1 N: h' PAppendix A....................................................................................... 59
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[LV.7]常住居民III

 楼主| 发表于 2013-9-28 08:11:05 | 显示全部楼层
2.全球新兴市场投资策略的深度研究报告2011-美林,pdf136页
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3 ?5 I. U# A" E7 D/ {9 r: U下载链接:7 {( w1 e7 T: ]5 B$ {1 K
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https://cloud.189.cn/t/jQjQN3RRRbAn0 ?$ C, |: }# e' y6 R  t
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Contents  page
! H4 ?5 a8 D3 P) @+ tOur Favourite Trades for 2011  32 [3 K1 ~% V6 A2 Z+ N
Top 10 Trading Themes for 2011  4
1 E+ d; l- `2 J1. What are the risks to EM assets in 2011?  8
7 {- X7 d6 y* b, J/ L: E! O2. How should one think about EM asset allocation now?  14# W, Z9 S, q# }
3. Are we there yet – how to recognise a bubble?  205 A0 |5 L$ P. u
4. How and where to play inflation in EM?  23/ P' F+ f) s3 e
5. Are there any spots of value left in the EM local rates trade?  29
9 q# l+ K/ b+ e6. Conditions favourable for modest EM FX appreciation  34
0 W8 \* V% {  B+ {! a1 I5 x7. Internationalisation of the Renminbi- a slow burner  40
* M$ y+ |& [3 S8. How much can EM credit spreads tighten from here?  41
2 Q( k# u- j- G* K9. Capital Controls: Widespread but mild  50
( h# j2 `2 n: Q. W' n3 y10. What are the EM political hotspots to keep an eye on?  56. P  e, k% t  @
US Rates Overview  59& `. v- ^1 i' o. p) d
Global Credit Overview  67' [* j. T+ }/ h$ o) P- x2 D
Regional EM Outlooks & Trades  73
+ K8 a' z, ~! K& m3 t1 x0 E—  Philippines: Consider Long PHP vs. G2...............................................................77
# Y: Z( q1 {: U$ b  i* I# o—  India: We continue to like the INR ........................................................................79
* c' ?% K6 R( ?: t/ V! i—  Singapore: SGD a relatively safe call?.................................................................80* f6 h; O: R$ C
—  India: Near-term opportunity to add to OIS steepeners........................................81
: G5 z: q9 J) {0 w. \—  Thailand: Receive steep front end IRS, consider steepeners ..............................82  G8 S; h. B$ \' C; R: w8 Y7 y) {
—  China: Risk of bear-steepening ............................................................................83
+ [6 J' E, E; c1 z—  Korea: Still some value in short end IRS..............................................................84* a, O% b1 w- i4 u
—  EEMEA Outlook: healthier and stronger, but still very heterogeneous ................922 u# T1 [, o$ \& C) t; q- N* y
—  Russia/South Africa: Long RUBZAR ....................................................................96: @  K/ o2 Y8 G( S  Q/ `
—  Turkey: 2s10s steepener; sell EURTRY for now..................................................98
  q) N2 f% D1 @- l& s! _, f4 o—  ............................................................................................................................100# j+ Y0 M+ W, k" b
—  Israel: long 10-yr bond; sell GBPILS ..................................................................101* C0 y% u$ h% ?& F
—  Poland: Short EURPLN; FRA steepeners ..........................................................103
, F# `+ b% `: Q5 X—  Russia CDS spreads to compress against Spain and France ...........................104
, I  ~3 {1 y# W, c/ J6 a/ v—  UAE – buy Dubai 2015s .....................................................................................105
" ^- ~) w0 t7 g0 {—  Latin America Outlook: Anchored fundamentals, more challenging valuations .1060 Z. [: g! Y8 B
—  Mexico: Hold TIIE flatteners, but not as a structural trade .................................112
8 @: G! i; l' x# d& y* s—  Brazil: Jan’14 Pre-DI rates offer tactical value ...................................................113% J' W+ w' o4 @6 `7 n" ]
—  Chile: Long CLP and 1-yr inflation break-evens.................................................1157 Y, q  g3 _3 r2 e. w7 ]
—  Peru: Long PEN to play growth and inflation pressures.....................................116
. Q8 A" k# Y3 Y; k/ W—  El Salvador: Overweight USD-denominated bonds ...........................................1183 r6 f6 @0 e+ p. g4 u4 m* |
—  High yielders: Structurally long Argentina, tactically long Venezuela.................119/ e) D% A9 S# k. V3 u' o
EM FX/FI Trade Monitors  1227 K, u4 ?* t; `7 `' Z. s$ _
—  EM FX Trade Monitor 2010 ................................................................................123
1 j* e# K4 H( i4 T+ N, X5 K. o2 i+ @—  EM Fixed Income Trade Monitor ........................................................................126
1 ?+ B# F' M2 p" O8 Q# tMacro Economic Forecasts  128. u5 T# ?8 y# n
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[LV.7]常住居民III

 楼主| 发表于 2013-9-28 08:15:37 | 显示全部楼层
全球新兴市场投资策略的深度研究报告2011-摩根大通,pdf48页- \* F% q/ N0 K9 L

' Z( e8 l* v3 _- i. X. O下载链接:
1 O3 M/ [; U& H' J8 e  D8 h. \* t6 \; G" p# |
https://cloud.189.cn/t/vyAVFf2YnaUr9 a" w" {, D# K7 a) W# x+ l3 s

  A9 F/ I* i7 l" eWe are less bullish on the outlook for Asia / EM equities
# s5 m4 d  y! V; vthan consensus, and than we were in our last two 2 q8 W6 U* h" G2 z
year-ahead outlooks. The macro environment ahead is ( [2 h3 A( x9 x7 ]' ]& y
likely one of slowing GDP growth, rising input cost
, C6 |0 R1 |) F  T5 oinflation, tighter monetary policy and more modest
9 a8 E' b6 b$ i+ Wexchange rate appreciation. These forces combine in
1 c$ m5 Z' a. A" q8 m- ]) ~our factor modelling to generate a below-consensus ) f* e/ B! U+ {" x% x" k
Base Case for 2011 US$ EPS growth for both MSCI EM
1 @$ l! ]- D1 ]9 W8 B) X9 a5 Yand MXAPJ of 13% (US$94 and US$35, respectively).
, s# B# }% }4 X7 I) ^$ AUnlike last year, we consider the tail risk of our Bear
- I; [& R: y3 z# ]' B. H* H/ _Scenario, envisaging low single-digit EPS growth, more + c/ Q+ k3 h& Q8 p' J3 K! T- W
likely than our Bull Scenario.
2 W/ U( b8 K" o# U7 m% |We set scenario-weighted Target Prices of 1,290 for
6 J+ s- V) k5 G& T: QMSCI EM and 540 for MSCI APxJ for year-end 2011.
3 q: u; t* o) O- O- a( bThese represent upside of 19% and 20% from current
) D1 E! o3 y! Z5 ?! h# G$ ?levels, respectively (and 7.5% and 11%, respectively 0 W( @7 m/ M# @1 D& H* u, j& Z& c
higher than our previous end-2010 Target Prices). . Q- @1 t& a! u6 D) J
We continue to favour EM equities to outperform EM
! |( W: i7 o+ b( [. a3 Z5 n: bUS$/Euro and local currency sovereign debt. On our
* l! z1 p3 u" }- `4 {7 Rprojections, MSCI EM is trading at a 7% forward P/E $ P# Y; {0 L0 H0 _2 e
discount to MSCI World, whilst prospective ROE is ; d' e2 p& D6 q2 I& B
forecast at a 15% premium. We therefore forecast EM
1 d0 [$ D7 U5 s- e" ~% z+ e" Aequities to continue to outperform DM, but with a smaller
5 w+ p! I. M* Xmargin of outperformance (250-500bp) than in either of
: g6 n' T( W- X; L: gthe last two years, and back-end loaded to 2H11.
2 ]; r" \* w8 \2 J) _7 Z! U+ rWe reduce Consumer Discretionary from OW to EW but
* c: Q, C1 S8 |* ?$ a& W# kretain an OW on Energy. We also highlight important 3 F) r, z& N8 T3 q
divergences in likely demand growth from China and
6 _6 S  d8 j% }India within Energy and Materials. At the stock level, we
* u0 K4 h8 p5 \: ?; V3 h% q* sfavour lower beta, with increased focus on dividend yield * O  E' ]4 O, X6 v) @$ Y6 M, A
and growth. We go into the year with low country risk 0 F# p  ?7 G) g* O, \
positions, albeit with a preference for China, Korea, and
3 ~0 [9 J0 V* }% LRussia amongst the larger markets. We remove China   b$ J1 l4 P$ R: M8 t
Dongxiang Group (3818.HK) from our APxJ and GEM
$ M7 {; M0 p% B( p& a$ Bfocus lists, adding Taiwan Glass Corp. (1802.TW).
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[LV.2]偶尔看看I

发表于 2014-2-18 10:19:54 | 显示全部楼层
楼主说的不错···顶起··
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[LV.2]偶尔看看I

发表于 2014-2-18 10:49:11 | 显示全部楼层
支持楼主。。。。
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[LV.3]偶尔看看II

发表于 2014-2-18 14:31:14 | 显示全部楼层
好吧,我学习了
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[LV.2]偶尔看看I

发表于 2014-2-20 13:26:59 | 显示全部楼层
楼主···加油吧···我们是你的粉丝···
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发表于 2015-5-25 07:48:32 | 显示全部楼层
真的牛,双手赞成,谢谢了
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